Why do humans ignore the obvious downfall/decay of society, that is happening in real time to them?
Since recorded history this has been the norm. Societies great and not so great rise and fall. Great and complex societies usually collapse slowly. Inertia seems to carry them quite a ways. Corruption and shortsightedness of the elites. This trickles down to the general citizenry slowly but surely and sooner or later rule of law is no longer. Criminal activity is not only accepted, it is defended and encouraged by a the political class, the business class and even the working class. Once these groups are all in agreement the collapse is beyond the point of no return.
https://ancientcivilizationsworld.com/collapsed/
A good synopsis of societies that have collapsed.
The Western Roman Empire is one such case, so lets look at it. The Western Roman Empire existed from 27 BC to 476 AD. Augtustus Ceasar was its first emperor. The Mayans,
The Western Roman Empire should not be confused with the Eastern Roman Empire.
Several key differences: Economic stabilty, the west had a weaker ecomony and and had more exposed borders leading to the invasions of Germanic tribes which in the end overthrew the Western Empire.
The Western Empire was Latin-speaking, Roman Catholic culture versus the East’s Greek-speaking, Eastern Orthodox culture. The East had more wealth, better defenses and survive the Bysantine Empire for another 1000 years.
The collapse of the Western Roman Empire is a classic example of a complex, gradual decline that powerful elites largely ignored or failed to address. Contributing factors include economic problems like inflation and trade deficits, political instability with corrupt leadership and a weakened military that relied on mercenaries, and military pressure from Germanic tribes and other groups, leading to a loss of territory and the eventual deposition of the last emperor.
Declining economic and military health: By the 4th century AD, the Western empire faced unsustainable costs and a shrinking tax base. The government devalued currency to pay for expenses, causing runaway inflation.
Political shortsightedness: Rather than addressing long-term weaknesses, Roman elites focused on short-term stability and personal gain. This included using slave labor, which increased unemployment among citizens and further reduced tax revenues.
Willful ignorance of external threats: Rome, weakened by internal problems, was increasingly vulnerable to invasions from groups like the Visigoths and Vandals, which ultimately led to the deposition of the last emperor in 476 CE
Hmmm how many of these do we currently meet?
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2008-02-26/five-stages-collapse/
Stages of Collapse
Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.
Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.
Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.
Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost. As local social institutions, be they charities, community leaders, or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.
Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.
The odd thing for me is people - friends and family just are not seeing it. Why not? I keep giving examples. I talk about things to do to make life easier during the collapse - things that while it will not stop the collapse these things most certainly would make live easier.
Growing some of your own food, stocking a pantry, buying a solar back up system, a water purifier. These three things will help in a dire situation making life far easier, it may not keep you in your current lifestyle but they will most certainly make line easier.
The next few days could very well show the necessity of these things, 100% ove the next few years those that prepare with these simply solutions will be thankful they did these simple things to prepare.
The current government shutdown takes a sharp turn November 1st slamming the cars occupants into the windows and down on the vehicle of life. The suspending of SNAP benefits could very well be a tipping point.
Fuming SNAP recipients threaten to loot if food stamps are cut Nov. 1: ‘Stay the f–k out of my way’
US is on verge of slew of plane crashes as shutdown closes major airports and stretches safety to breaking point, experts warn
Democrat-run dystopia stinks to new low as drains and waterways overflow with raw polluted sewage.
The signs are everywhere. The USA and western civilization is collapsing, yet people do not see it. Yes some of us do but the vast majority do not.
The question is why or why not?
Societal collapse especially in world powers throughout history have been slow motion train wrecks. The countryside scenery keeps passing along, its mesmerizing. The ever increasing bumps as the train hits each bump is overcome with eh we are fine, life is good -its just a small bump. Meanwhile the bearings are no longer being greased, it metal against metal and the sound grows louder each day, sparks are flying out ever more often, only to be drowned out by a life long bout of normalcy - normalacy bias. Things have been this way my whole life so they will continue that way. Truly a recipe for a disastrous possibly disastrous life event, that if not prepped for will forever change your way of life in a far worse way than spending some time and money prepping for the current slow motion train wreck.
These events of societal collapse never happen over night, its a long drawn out process with ups and downs, the highs are lower and the lowers are lower. Its a stair step down - one step at a time and every once in awhile a step backwards from collapse.
We are all subject to this: We’ve lived 20-30-40-60 years and we are still here, still pretty comfortable, still have nice things we’ve ignored the signs for decades so why start now? Well the events are now happening rapid fire, we are just a few years away from collapse. Just go up a couple of paragraphs, those are just a couple events today.
People fail to recognize a potential societal collapse for several reasons, from
fundamental psychological biases to the slow, complex nature of the decline itself. Rather than a sudden, dramatic event, a societal collapse often occurs gradually, with issues like economic instability and environmental decay accumulating over decades.
Lets look at some biases that explain this in a fairly deep way yet easy to understand.
Cognitive biases
Normalcy bias
This is a cognitive bias that makes people underestimate the possibility of a disaster, causing them to believe that life will continue as it always has. It leads people to disregard warnings and to under prepare for a crisis, even when confronted with evidence.
Optimism bias
This bias causes individuals to believe they are less likely to experience a negative event than others. In the face of societal problems like climate change, optimism bias can cause people to feel personally safe from its worst effects, leading to inaction. Yep its never going to happen to us, we are smarter, our society is smarter/better, I live in a good area and on and on. Sure neighborhoods collapse but each collapse adds to the fire of a complete societal collapse. Its cumulative.
Analysis paralysis
Sometimes referred to as the “ostrich effect,” this occurs when people are presented with complex problems and feel unable to act, delaying important decisions. In the context of a potential societal collapse, this can manifest as an unwillingness to confront the problem, especially among those who have a vested interest in the status quo. Sometime too much information - ie too many choices lead to paralysis - we over analysis. Early in my days as an officer in the Libertarian Party another officer had a saying - Not to decide IS to decide. Let that sink in - that is so true. If you are not deciding you have decide to do nothing and to do nothing when society is collapsing is a fools errand.
Incremental decline
Unlike the dramatic collapses depicted in movies, the decay of a civilization is a slow, creeping process. Erosion of institutions, widening inequality, and environmental degradation happen incrementally, making it difficult for people to perceive the long-term trend. Instead of one “big crack,” it can feel like a series of disconnected, manageable crises. Look around is any of this NOT happening?
Systemic complexity
Modern society is highly specialized and complex, making it difficult for any one person to grasp the full extent of its problems. This compartmentalization means government officials, business leaders, and citizens can lack the broad understanding needed to see how different crises are interconnected, from financial turmoil to ecological damage. Complex societies are very vulnerable to systemic collapse. WE all are now dependent on the internet. Shipping software, banking, credit cards, what ever. If the internet or our modems go down we are ground to a halt. Many no longer can function without it. We cannot make shipments, take payments, bank or even remember our spouse phone number if our phone goes dead, even if we could get to a land line we are helpless withouta cell phone. .
Conflicting narratives
Even as some people observe signs of collapse, others push back with conflicting—and often more comforting—narratives. Some critics dismiss concerns as a variation of a historical “end-of-the-world” trope, arguing that human ingenuity will find a technological solution. This can neutralize the emotional urgency of the warnings and maintain a sense of stability.
Institutional and individual resistance
Entrenched elites
Powerful groups with a vested interest in the existing system have a strong motivation to preserve the status quo. This can lead them to actively resist or suppress any information or movements that challenge the current order, making it harder to recognize impending problems. WE now see the tech brow working hand in hand with government enslave us with digital id’s. They work hand in hand to silence opposition - like Facebook, Linked in, Twitter did during covid. These international busineses people are part of the elite ruling class that wished to enslave us.
The need for normalcy
For many people, the pressures of daily survival—like paying rent, feeding a family, and holding down a job—dominate their attention. This constant need to focus on immediate issues makes it difficult to engage with abstract, long-term threats to society. Maintaining a semblance of normalcy becomes an exhausting, full-time effort. Yes any disruption needs to be met with full head on force of ignoring the hard truth - we just bury our heads in tv, work, sports - all mind numbing and we tell ourselves thee bumps are small and normal
Emotional self-protection
Grappling with the idea of societal collapse can be psychologically overwhelming. People may avoid the thought to protect themselves from anxiety and stress. A more optimistic outlook, even if unrealistic, can help individuals cope with uncertainty in the short term. Much like walking on a train bridge - you can here the horn see the lights but you ignore it - the results of ignoring the signs of societal collapse is having a far harder life, living day to day not know what or if you will eat. This will take years off your life - the worry, malnutrition, lack of food, water - basic necessities - al because of indecision or disbelief that our work is crumbling.
Who does see it coming?
While many are blind to it, some people are more attuned to the signs of decline. Those with less to lose from the collapse of the existing system, or who are directly experiencing its failures, may recognize the trajectory sooner. Additionally, some researchers, historians, and futurists have dedicated their work to studying civilizational cycles and modern systemic risks, like environmental collapse. However, these warnings are often dismissed or drowned out by the noise of day-to-day life.
Conflicting narratives
Even as some people observe signs of collapse, others push back with conflicting—and often more comforting—narratives. Some critics dismiss concerns as a variation of a historical “end-of-the-world” trope, arguing that human ingenuity will find a technological solution. This can neutralize the emotional urgency of the warnings and maintain a sense of stability. Yep been this guy for decades. I’m always the one with the tin foil hat banging garbage can lids - much like this substack.
Social influence and groupthink
People look to others for cues on how to act, especially during a crisis. If those around them are not taking potential risks seriously, people are more likely to follow their example, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as “group think”. This can create a powerful social pressure that reinforces normalcy bias and discourages individuals from taking warnings seriously, even if they have personal reservations. Humans are a herd animal. Its not “normal” to go against the grain, the narrative, not be submissive to authorities, we all want to be in a group.
Their are some but they are rare birds indeed.
A “sigma male” is an archetype describing a man who is independent, self-reliant, and operates outside of traditional social hierarchies, often contrasting with the more dominant “alpha male”. Key traits include being an introverted “lone wolf” who prefers solitude but is confident and capable of leading when necessary, often focused on personal goals rather than social approval.
WE need more sigma males, people that are confident, people that do not care to be in the group. These sigmas may seen harsh, lofty, un available, anti social. Its not that so much as they are confident enough to not care what others think.
Resistance to change
Threats to societal stability can feel like a direct threat to one’s personal environment and way of life, triggering a natural human resistance to change. People are often reluctant to abandon the familiar, and this can be exploited by political figures who frame calls for change as hostile to existing values and institutions. This makes it difficult for warnings of instability to be accepted and acted upon, as it would require confronting a fundamental change to the world as we know it. Stagnant things die, we all wish things could stay the same - simply that is now how this world works.
Complex societies have all been relegated to the scrap pile of history. Non complex ones just keep plugging away. Never getting to the hyper complexity since they are not complex and not centrally governed their is very little to collapse. Afghanistan could be considered one of the latter societies. In my lifetime they have repelled and defeated 2 super powers. They used relatively primitive weapons while the super powers had advanced weaponry.
Finally this brings me back to my last substack.
Do we hope for the best or prep for a sustained power outage.
Over the last 5-6 years is is becoming increasing clear the grid and power companies in general are no longer dependable sources of electricity. Weather events, tornadoes, heavy snow, used to be the exception to steady power, now wind and just general failure of aging parts are being added to the mix. It can take minutes, hours or even days depending up…
Yes its a prepper substack, any thing we do in life requires energy - electricity, gas, diesel etcetera. NONE of those are going to be dependably available in a societal collapse. So what is a refrigerator of spiking food worth? A deep freeze of beef? Even if you got it for free it is literally worth your and your families life. A refrigerator of food after 4-5 hours is starting to get warm - even if you do not open it. A freezer full of beef? 24-36 hours and you’d better be doing something. Sure you can have a gas generator or a whole house stationary generator hooked up to propane or natural gas. Do you honestly believe those things are going to be available to us underlings? Do you honestly believe the government is going to tell the tech Bro’s you get no power for your AI because we take care of people first? Hopelessly naive is what that is called. These guys and their businesses are far more important than you. That IS reality. You are expendable, your food is expendable.
This is a really good read and take on electricity.
https://www.glennbeck.com/radio/electric-skyrocketi-because-massive-change
This is from the international energy agency. This is something they just released. Global data center power will double by the end of 2026.
That is equivalent to adding another Japan to our energy demand.
Okay. Another Japan.
And that’s just for computers and server farms. Adding Japan.
A few years ago a farmer I knew died, his wife sold the farm to google. That farm with native grass that had never been tilled and the fields are now under industrial concrete buildings. It is around two miles from a new gas generating electrical plant. This server farm is 460 acres in size. The surrounding area is also now being graded for something. Nobody really knows for sure. This area is along a major highway from Omaha to the north. We now have a 2.25 mile corridor along this highway that is being developed. The airport next to me is adding another 1500 feet to its runway, to serving larger jets. It has the heaviest run way rating of any airport in the area sans Eppley.
All this is going to require huge amounts of electricity. OPPD has closed its nuclear plant, opened 1 small natural gas plant and has shut down its coal plant and has started converting it to natural gas. Meanwhile the state is suing OPPD to stop the craziness. The state can see OPPD is way over its skis and will not be able to supply all this power without generation facilities. The OPPD board does not care and neither do most people here. Those of us pounding the table on we are just a year of two - three tops from brown outs and black outs are out of our minds - so most think. They watch all this going on and have not one concern. We nhave had reliable power here for decades, Only recent years has it become increasingly unreliable. I have been without power more in the last 3 years than I have in the previous 33 years combined. The writing is on the wall, their is not going to be enough power and soon. Talk to linesmen, they are frustrated getting called out all the time because of the de aying infrastructure and general malaise of management at OPPD on real problems in the field with trees in lines for years, lack of foresight and the decay.
Even Bill Gates the climate mad man that wanted to block the sun is now backing off his climate change predictions and how its a threat to humanity. Now it no longer is, he is going to now spend even more time on injectables.
Climate change is not going to wipe out humanity, he argued, and past efforts that strive for achieving zero carbon emissions have made real progress. But Gates said that past investments fighting climate change have been misplaced, and too much good money has been put into expensive and questionable efforts.
So how much electricity does a average server farm for google use?
On average, a Google data center uses about 30.8 million megawatt-hours of electricity annually, which is equivalent to the electricity consumption of a large city. This significant energy use is primarily driven by the need to power servers and cooling systems. 30.8 mw will power 30,800 homes for a year or 2566 homes per month.
https://baxtel.com/data-center/omaha
The Omaha data center market is located in the state of Nebraska within Americas. Omaha has 21 facilities with 4,889,877 sqft and 756 megawatts.
The top providers in Omaha are Google (7 sites) and Meta with 3 facilities . The most popular facilities are LoCoCoLo Omaha and TierPoint Omaha Midlands .
Market Facts
The Omaha is ranked 14th largest market in United States and ranked 14th in Americas.
The Omaha Data Center Market Has 21 data centers, operated by 12 providers.
The largest data center in Omaha is Meta Sarpy Nebraska with 160 megawatts
There are currently 2 data centers under construction in Omaha
None of these even touch small servers that small businesses use for their internal networks. Add these and the amount of electricity needed is staggering. Then widen this out to the whole country.
Our local utility is now installing “smart” meters. They are being sold to us as an improvement in line down, power outages, sub station down, we will be able to see our energy usage in near real time. You know - its all about you ……. controlling you and your data. Meanwhile the reality is they will be able to throttle your electricity or even cut it off if you are deemed as using to much. If google, facebook, microsoft need the power - well you’re out, they’re in.
Its not like small solutions are not available.
A small solar generator - around $6-700 can run a fridge for several hours. Remember refrigerators do not run all the time - yesterday my refrigerator used 2.09 KW of electricity. so a small system like the anker 3800 plus with a auxiliary battery and the portable panels could run that refrigerator for 2-3 days before needing a recharge. If you have the solar panels, you can charge while its hooked up to the refrigerator. A 6kw system or larger can be built over time to run your whole house. These systems are expandable. Are you going to live your life like you did the day before you lost power? Most certainly not, unless you spend upwards of $10,000 dollars. Will you be living better than your neighbor that did nothing - absolutely! A 2kw system like a Anker C-2000 is $799.00 and can be carried like a suit case - it weighs in at 42 lbs, can be charged from line power, solar or even from you cars cigarette lighter. It will power a refrigerator for 32 hours.
2 of Ankers F3800 plus can power a whole house. They are 120/240 split phase, 12 kw of power, 7600 watts of battery back up and that is expandable to 53.8 kw of backup at an additional cost. $6398.00 for the 2 inverters, connection cable and with the home smart panel to hook up to your main panel. 4 ways to charge, gas generator, solar, grid or simply plug it into a wall outlet. This system will literally run your house off grid. So for about the cost of a side of beef and what you have in your refrigerator you can protect all that food, have lights and the creature comforts you are used to. Add solar panels and for another $200 to $2500.00 and you are self sufficient and no longer grid dependent.
The one downside to these type systems is the batteries are proprietary. On the plus side - they are portable and can be taken to a new home pretty easily.
Beside the problem attaining fuel for other generators the noise id a dead give away that you have power, and food. Again of you think as society collapses these type of people will not bother you, you’d be 100% wrong. You are announcing to the world - nanna nanna boo boo I have power and you don’t. Are you sure that is a smart decision even if you can get fuel, which is a real possibility?
Our owners already shut off cell service during some times during riots or large protests. Do we actually think they won’t cut off natural gas if they deem it necessary? Oh people depend on natural gas for cooking and heating the government would never do that……. Face reality the government considers you theirs to do what they want with. They do not care if you suffer, get sick or die. Government is a humanity meat grinder and we are the grind.
Its time to face these realities and start protecting your loved ones and your self.
Hey, great read as always, this piece really brings into sharp focus the human tendency to ignore sistematic decay, brilliantly complementing your previous article on effective governance frameworks and how critcal it is to avoid such historical pitfalls.